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| Space for rent. At 110k+ votes a pop. |
But what makes a good center? It is both a combination of character image, appeal and ambassadorial responsibility. Let's briefly look at two current examples: Atsuko Maeda and Yuko Oshima.
Atsuko Maeda: Classroom queen
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| Acchan: "I think my dog should be the next center. Whaddya' think, Aki-P?" |
Love her or not, she is the current image girl for AKB48, appearing in front of nearly every single commercial release and promotion to date. Her stoicism - itself a controversial point of hers - and image of an idealised, mature yet trendy and modern Japanese idol femme, bordering on Yamato Nadeshiko, presents her as very favourable and appealing for many, even beyond the fandom, elevating the group's image above just mere pandering to the otaku trope and being the target of many companies for promotional campaigns as diverse as foodstuff to urban fashion labels and beauty chains. Whilst not particularly specialised in any one skill, it is her all-rounded capabilities both within and outside of AKB48 that sets the standard for many members.
Yuko Oshima: Perennial pervert
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| She's happy not just because she's center, but due to the fact she no longer needs to sit down for another bloody 2 hours waiting for #1 to be called. |
Heavy Rotation was the defining high point in Yuko's career - it gave the ability for her to demonstrate who she really is and what she brings to the table for AKB48. Just like the song itself, the affable and slyly perverted Yuko brings in a cooler, wilder, colourful and fun side to AKB48's image, bringing smiles and laughs to many a fan and outside observer. Her talent as an up-and-coming actress is her source of strength and, just like Atsuko Maeda, one that brings in much mainstream awareness and appeal to the floor. Yet despite all of this, she has also demonstrated a sense of responsibility for the group alongside Minami Takahashi.
Commonalities
So what the common features that we can find in both Atsuko and Yuko? Most of these relate not merely to their individual character or image, but what lies underneath their skin - no, not their organs! Both exhibit a willingness to work long hours and work hard for the team (and for themselves of course), display a sense of internal toughness across many situation, both favourable and unfavourable, and a sense of self-responsibility for themselves and for the group.
Of course, you could argue that a lot of girls might have these inherent characteristics, and not merely exclusive to centers. But a very important and arguably fundamental factor that all centers, and not necessarily all girls might, have is their appeal to the mainstream and how they come across as being representative of AKB48 as a whole. Although both might go about it in slightly different ways, it can be argued that they have universal appeal, which can only be a good sign for AKB48's image as a whole.
But good things don't last forever: Atsuko Maeda is graduating and it is likely that Yuko's is coming soon too - a question of "when" rather than "if". So who do we turn to as our "center"?
Haruka Shimazaki: Ponkotsu blues
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| Ponkotsu grows a pair and begins to tear the prison down. |
Case: Although she isn't exactly a "new" member - she was ranked two years ago as an Undergirl whilst still a Kenkyuusei - it's only recently as part of a wider Team 4 push that she, as the Team 4 ace, has gained increasing momentum in popularity. Could also be suggested that from recent comments, the boss himself, Yasushi Akimoto, favours her and her personality: she is now lead character in two dramas (Shiritsu Bakaleya Koukou and Majisuka Gakuen 3) and is ever-increasingly a regular part of the senbatsu lineups.
Character: Many fans label her as "ponkotsu" (ぽんこつ) - one who exhibits an airy, innocent clumsiness and being air-headed to a degree. One doesn't need to go too far through her Google+ posts to notice this characteristic of hers - heck, it's even a part of the Majisuka Gakuen 3 opening theme song title. She also appears to be fairly reserved and quiet, sometimes to the point of being unsociable (although this is a subject of debate). Yet she does work hard and puts in a significant degree of effort throughout her activities. Fans are alluding to character and image similarities as how Atsuko Maeda used to be in the past, leading to speculation that Haruka Shimazaki might well be a hot contender for the role in the future...
Issue: ...but is that really the case here? Sure, she has only started to appear in promotional material for AKB48 (for example, HP's new ENVY Ultrabook campaign in Japan and Nissin's cup noodles) but whether she has any mainstream appeal has yet to be tested - clumsy girls might not get far with the public (Haruna Kojima is an arguable counter-example, but she does have beauty and looks to back her case up). Reception to Majisuka Gakuen 3 and the Bakleya film will be critical to the success, or otherwise, of her performance as a lead and whether management will continue pursuing a push strategy. Her age might also play against her: Atsuko was only 16-17 at the time, whilst Haruka has just turned 18. Nevertheless, she is considered as part of a younger generation of girls and there's plenty of time for her to develop.
Mayu Watanabe: Can geeks rule?
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| CG wasn't too happy that they're going to update her to Jelly Bean. |
Character: It's no secret that she's a geek, building her reputation as an otaku extraordinaire and is now expanding her sights on the Takarazuka niche. Fans have also regularly commented on her CG looks and way about doing things, her pragmatism, subjective cuteness and determination for success. Sometimes, this last point can work against her though if she doesn't get what she wants.
Issue: Ultimately her geekness and otaku pandering is something that might prevent her from achieving greater public and mainstream acceptance; however, we are recently seeing shifts away from her "twin-tailed" cutesy look towards a more refined, modest yet fashionable look - promoter are picking up on this character marketing strategy too. It remains to be seen whether this strategic shift will work though, and Aki-P prefers to leave her be on her own path to success. But if this is designed to increase widespread public acceptance, then it has a high chance of succeeding. Coupled with her work ethic and (generally) all-rounded skills set, will we eventually see a more "refined cute" image for AKB48?
Yui Yokoyama: Push, but where's the shove?
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| Whyalla still exists! ホンマヤン！ |
Case: A hot topic for those that despise managerial interference in popularity, Yui's pushing has opened up a lot of front-line opportunities: lead roles in Majisuka Gakuen 2, a sub-unit position and an up-and-coming regular in senbatsu lineups, as well as her own solo television program following in Sashihara's footsteps. From out of nowhere as a Kenkyuusei, she has ascended straight into the senbatsu class of 2011 and staying there ever since.
Character: Her Kyoto origins - something she is heavily promoting about herself - give her a level of refinement, nobility of class (without the high-fashion stuffiness) and a well-mannered politeness. The elder statesman, Mariko Shinoda, has commonly taken note of her incredibly hard-working efforts within AKB48, and many other members agree. Well-liked internally, but without any peculiarity standing out besides her accent.
Issue: Despite recent successes and perceived managerial favouritism, we haven't really seen much pushing activity as of late and some fans are commenting that there's, well, not much that makes her stand out from the crowd. Regardless, one could make the argument that Atsuko Maeda exhibits similarities in the first place and that for Yui, she's slowly but surely carving out her own path to success and popularity. Case in point: she does have a consistently higher average rate of selling out handshake tickets compared to Haruka Shimazaki... or any other Team 4 member in fact. But perhaps AKB48 needs an image that's a little bit more, "excitable"? Then again, Atsuko Maeda's stoicism has worked incredibly well in the past.
Jurina Matsui and Miyuki Watanabe: Oogoe Diamond redux
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| Milky: "Nobody wants to ちゃぷちゃぷ with me in NMB anymore..." |
Case: I'll deal with these two as a whole. Recent exchanges to Team K and B respectively probably suggest Aki-P have bigger plans for these two than at first glance. Both are established SKE48 and NMB48 team aces in their own right - Jurina more so than Miyuki, and Jurina is no stranger to AKB48 marketing and promotions. Being in SKE48, Jurina is also a sharp dancer and Miyuki is no slouch as a performer either. The mere association with AKB48 alone arguably gives them more leverage and promotional opportunity, let alone for SKE48 and NMB48 as a whole.
Character: Jurina markets herself as a "aggressively cool but cute" person, partly due to her (often paradoxical) looks and age. Meanwhile, Aki-P comments on Miyuki as a "classic idol" in character and image: her meme-tastic, cutesy-pandering phrase "chapu chapu" (ちゃぷちゃぷ) speaks volumes of this, for example. Both are well placed for individual success in this regard, and bring different styles to the AKB table.
Issue: As with anything sister-group related, the number one mitigating point is the fact that, well, neither of them are purely born-and-bred AKB48. One could argue for them as centers of SKE48 and NMB48 - in fact, Jurina is already a perceived twin center along with Rena in SKE48 - but for AKB48? The controversy and animosity surrounding Oogoe Diamond is not easily forgotten in the minds of some, and purist sister-group fans will tell you mixing is a sin. Nor might some be receptive of the notion of a not-really-AKB48 member being the center of the entire group, and the public will certainly be confused. Of course, this is the new AKB48: whether we like it or not, there is an ever-increasing fluidity and cross-relationship between all the groups. Leave the leadership responsibility, brand-carrying and team-building roles to Rena and Sayaka respectively. Also of note is that Jurina, now under AKS, was no stranger to pushing in the first place. It has stabilised now as of late, but come post-Tokyo Dome, I expect promotional opportunities to pick up once again and Miyuki would probably join in for the ride, too, although for the latter, she needs to establish herself more prominently first. Regardless, both options are an outside choice for the role, but there will be internal fandom complications and allegiances that management and fans will have to deal with.
Other contenders
There are well over 230 other members throughout the whole AKB48 empire. What about the rest of them? Here are some other members one might have considered:
Rino Sashihara: If Shukan Bunshun never bothered to release details of her alleged boyfriend relationship (and if she never bothered to engage in that relationship in the first place), she would be a strong contender for the position. Too bad Shukan Bunshun have, and fans allege it to be true, putting any center ambitions in much doubt. Her transfer to HKT48 shoves another nail in the "I want to be center of AKB48!" coffin, too.
Minami Takahashi: Our beloved short captain would be better off doing what she does best - leading and motivating the group. Sure, she might have some center ambitions, but I would think (and many fans would agree) that she prefers to be the heart, not the face, of AKB48.
Yuki Kashiwagi / Mariko Shinoda: The other two that make up the top five this year aren't really perceived center material. Management prefers the former to do her own thing as "an eternal idol" (一生アイドル), whilst the latter is more of an elder fashionable states(wo)man for AKB48; neither being fully representative of AKB48 as a whole. If those two were considered to be center material, we would have seen elevated promoting and pushing efforts by Aki-P and management as is related to AKB48. Unfortunately, we haven't.
HKT48 members (excl. Sashihara): Being the new kids on the block, they have the most youth. However, they need more time to establish themselves in the public eye and Sashihara would probably see to that - for better or worse.
(other) Team 4 members: Like HKT48, these girls are relatively young compared to the average AKB48 member. However, only the aforementioned Haruka Shimazaki has any real popularity momentum of late and the rest, notably Mina Oba, Yuuka Tano, Mariya Nagao and Miori Ichikawa, have yet to prove themselves - the latter's Fresh Lemon appeal turning a little more sour as of late.
Conclusion
There is never going to be a straight answer as to "who should be the next center post-Atsuko Maeda", and I've only really scratched the surface of a long and divisive debate. Ultimately, it is management and boss Akimoto himself who will suggest to us our next center, and give it to us on a silver platter. Of course, as armchair fans and wota alike, we have a say as to who we think should be the next center through our consumption habits (and it's not like management isn't listening, otherwise the elections would never have been created), and management will simply test each girl out in the waters to see who can survive and adapt the best until they have found "the best replacement". Moreover, it isn't simply about finding an "Atsuko Maeda II", because no one will ever be the next Atsuko Maeda, but someone that brings a fresh and unique dimension to the image and perception of the AKB48 empire as a whole.
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