Challenges Facing the Next-Gen

To use a oft-quoted statement from the boss, Yasushi Akimoto ("Aki-P"), himself, "2012 will be the year of reform". Atsuko Maeda ("Acchan") is going. The Tokyo Dome concert goal is fast approaching and about to be realised. Where to from here? Eyes are slowly starting to turn towards the next generation of AKB48, one that is not led by the Atsuko Maeda-Yuko Oshima-Minami Takahashi triumvirate. If one pays regular attention to AKB48's activities, we can surely put the pieces together. But just because we might be able to piece a picture puzzle together doesn't mean it's a good-looking picture in the first place. I will attempt to dissect a few important factors that need to be considered at this critical point in AKB48's history.

Four to the floor, I'm not so sure

Team 4 still needs more time to mature and find their niche in the -48 family beyond just a "rebadged KKS" if they are to play a major role in the future of AKB48.

The mere existence of Team 4 was in response to a problem that long existed in the AKB48 of modern times, of which I'll elaborate further on later. Regardless, we are starting to see that Aki-P is pursuing a Team 4-centric strategy, with Haruka Shimazaki ("Paruru") leading the way. Newer media properties like Shiritsu Bakaleya Koukou and Majisuka Gakuen 3 have nary a majority legacy member presence, and the latest couple of promotional campaigns (e.g. HP's) want us to believe in a Maeda-Oshima-free future. It is a good step that Aki-P has even established a hedging strategy that will at least put it in a decent position when the inevitable time approaches ever the more nearer (i.e. the dreaded word of "graduation"). However, it is not enough. It has been regularly noted that Team 4 members are still being treated occasionally as if they are Kenkyuusei, subbing in/out for full Team A/K/B members. There's a long queue for new stages, and any hopes of a Team 4 original stage seem to be on the back-burner lately. Paruru ranked 23rd; a fine result when taken in isolation, but none have yet cracked the psychological senbatsu barrier. Worse, there have been questions surrounding the team members' work ethic and spirit - remember, none of these girls have been through the growing pains of a Budoukan-esque shuffle (yet), and who can forget the memorable scene of Acchan scolding the new kids on the block during the Seibu Dome period. Whilst there is no doubt that the girls are slowly learning and working hard, they still need more time to fully develop their character and mature if they are to be perceived seriously as standing shoulder-to-shoulder with the other three flagship teams. 

To use a relevant and timely analogy, (Michael) Phelps might have a swag of gold medals and worldwide recognition under his belt, but it was the entire American swimming team effort that brought it all home. Likewise, it will undoubtedly take more than just a rising Paruru and a slew of Theater Edition songs for this to happen. Problem is, time does not wait for anyone.

JPN48

The future of AKB48 is increasingly focused in Nagoya, Osaka and Hakata, but even the sisters need to focus on forging their own path to glory.

AKB48: 6 SKE48: 8 NMB48: 2. Talk about getting outgunned by
the girls down the Shinkansen track.

The forthcoming AKB48 album, "1830m", contains a song by the "Up and Coming Girls", consisting mainly of younger (but not necessarily less "senbatsu"-ed) girls from across the entire -48 family. The diversity of girls in NO NAME (the AKB0048 voice actress lineup sub-unit) is very apparent to all. Majisuka Gakuen 3 is led by a Paruru and Yuria combo. Sasshi (Rino Sashihara) has been pitched as the defacto "elder stateswoman" for the kids at Hakata. Jurina and Milky (Miyuki Watanabe) have been exchanged into AKB48 and have both debuted in their new teams already. And it's only a matter of time before HKT48 begins their all-out assault on the consumer market.

If you can't see it by now, (the future of) AKB48 is not only becoming more Team 4-centric but also more all-encompassing. By and large, the barriers of team purity have all but shattered since Jurina and Rena have been made regular senbatsu members in many an AKB48 single lineup, and we are experiencing greater levels of group fluidity than ever before. This can only be a good thing for the AKB48 brand in general: take the best, high-growth girls from each team, supplement them with existing legacy members and profit from it. Kind of like an "all-stars" senbatsu, if you wish. But if we take a harder look at it all, this is really only a short-term solution. AKB48 cannot rely on the success of girls from other sister groups alone. Jurina is still top-dog in SKE48 and Milky will always retain her Kansai-ben, both literally and in spirit. Whilst the other three sister groups are gradually consolidating their market position, investing in their own futures now and thus becoming an idol group tour de force in their own right, it is AKB48, the flagship group, that is in need of some soul-searching. Millions do not last forever, and some might still not be letting go of Acchan - I mean, she's in the forthcoming single A-side, of which she has no (singing) part in! We need a strong and sustainable batch of future talent that's home grown and self-sufficient. And suffice to say, as strong as Mayu (Watanabe) and Paruru are in the talent pool, they're not enough.

Cut the flab

The rate of entrance is far outstripping the rate of exit, at unsustainable levels. 

AKB48 is already up to the 14th generation of members. On the flipside, we've only had two (and one forthcoming) real graduations since 2010 and an additional three unplanned (i.e. scandalised) ones. Moreover, nearly 1/3 of the current full member lineup is still consisting of 1st-3rd gen members. Sure, by the time I've finished writing this piece up a few more 12th and 13th-gen Kenkyuusei would have gone the way of the dodo, but there's nothing stopping Aki-P from holding a 15th-gen audition and beyond in the short-term.

Why are the legacy members reluctant to leave and the turnover rate so low? The members (and management) do have their valid reasons though:

• As famously stated by Mariko (Shinoda) in her 2012 senbatsu election speech, (paraphrased) "I'm not going anywhere because the younger and newer ones aren't good enough yet". It all comes down to their maturity and skill level (or lack of). The legacy members, who have worked so hard to reach the top might be both unwilling to give the younger ones a free ride. Think about it as the younger ones "taking AKB48's current popularity for granted". Or, put it another way: the future senbatsu pool is not yet large enough. A very reasonable concern to make if I were in Mariko (or similar)'s position. 
• Too much of AKB48's brand equity lies within the legacy members. When the average Joe thinks of AKB48, they think "Acchan" or "Yuko". Certainly not "Paruru" - although that could all change in the future if executed right.
• Some of the legacy girls might not have a future beyond AKB48. That is, this is all they have right now and they have yet to forge their ideal career niche down the track. 

Regardless, you'd have to wonder if the status quo continued, how large AKB48 would become (even disregarding the sister groups for a minute). Granted, I would imagine most of the top-tier legacy members are strong enough to stand on their own two feet away from the media and career hand-holding that being in AKB48 provides. And in any case, if there's more room to move up the top, there's more of a chance for these newer girls to shine. 

"Beginner" or go "Bye bye bye": the chinks in the revenue armor

Lower consumer spending on AKB48 goods, coupled with an increasingly tough competition, is a signal that the once-mighty sales and cash flow juggernaut is slowing down. 

All of us, after blowing exorbitant amounts of cash on -48 goods
and checking our bank or card account bills.

iTunes downloads and singles cost money. Albums and concert tickets cost more money. Handshake tickets costs even more money once you start piling them up and spamming the slot allocations. (And let's not even start on election votes). 

We've had no fewer, possibly more, than 12 single and album releases from the -48 family, either on sale or currently pre-order, since May. That's not even counting other side releases (AKB0048, Rena Matsui's Blu-ray, for example). With Manatsu no Sounds Good alone being undoubtedly an expensive proposition for many (election votes), everyone snapping up a higher amount of handshake tickets than usual for 1830m, and the incredibly tight release timings for each release in succession, you'd have to wonder how deep fan wallets are, if they aren't in credit card debt already. Though it seems, from recent preliminary handshake allotment reports for Gingham Check, that we're starting to experience a weakening in fan consumption power. The current state of the economy in Japan (and worldwide for that matter) isn't helping consumer disposable income levels either, although having said that, research suggests demand for idol goods seem to be relatively inelastic (to income) anyway. 

In any case, this poses considerable problems for AKB48's sales and overall profitability. If the fans and wota aren't buying as much as they were previously, revenue levels would inevitably slow down. Lowering sales numbers, an oft-quoting measure of bragging rights, would imply an opening for rival groups to pounce upon, not just for Johnny's (a long time sales rival of the -48 family) but also other competitors like EXILE, Hello! Project or the various smaller idol groups trying to make a splash in the market. We're already seeing this: Mayu Watanabe, French Kiss and NO NAME's most recent singles have all fared pretty badly compared to historical releases and that week's competition (none of them reached #1 weekly). 

Or maybe perhaps, well, people are starting to become tired of the -48 cash cow juggernaut. It's been three years since RIVER, AKB48's first #1 weekly single, hit the stores and almost two years since the venerable Heavy Rotation and Beginner hit combo made waves in the consumer music market. Yet the formula hasn't changed. No new stages since A6/K6/B5 (KII 3rd excepting, but that's SKE48). The single release cycle is no different since 10nen Zakura. Meanwhile, Aki-P's exploring all these international expansion opportunities, side projects that don't necessarily change the core one bit. Simply put, it's growing too fast in some areas and sitting too still on its slowly-becoming-vulnerable cash cow position.

Maybe it's time for some much needed revitalisation and rejuvenation of the entire system, and what more fitting a time than post-Tokyo Dome. Put it simply, it's called "innovation" (and no, Nogizaka46 is not, and has not turned out to be, the answer). It needs to regain much of that magic touch it had when Aitakatta, RIVER and Heavy Rotation first blared through the airwaves. We need another king-hit from AKB48, whatever it takes to get there (I don't know). If not from the -48 family, then someone else will do the honours. And take the sales and glory with them. 

Conclusion: play your strategy right and reap the rewards

The very essence of AKB48 lies more strongly in the future, the next-generation, more than it ever has been in the past. Yet these are testing times for the entire group. The decisions management and Aki-P make now need to be strong and have a secure, long-lasting impact for the road ahead. Too many wrong moves and consumers will simply move on to better things. And let's not forget who has the biggest stakeholding in all of this. Their very own future is dependent on moves played now by management, Aki-P and every other corporate stakeholder in this game wanting to sell to us consumers. 

Yes, it's the girls themselves.