Subunits: Time's Up?

As AKB48 became more popular, in an effort to solidify their own stake of influence in the family through boosting their own members' profile/popularity, members' management talent agencies have been scrambling to form one of their own in a bid to implicitly outdo one other. Thus we have seen the proliferation of sub-units over the past two years; we currently have no less than five permanent sub-units altogether, and a couple of temporary ones to boot over the years.

Prominent in the 48 landscape since 2010, they didn't hit critical mass until later that year and earlier on in 2011, with each group releasing at least 2-3 singles last year throughout 2011. Watanabe Entertainment, Ohta Production, office48 have one unit each (French Kiss, Not yet and DiVA respectively), whilst Production Ogi has two (in the form of no3b and Watarirouka Hashiritai (7)).

This year, though, the outlook has not been so rosy for sub-unit activity.

Three of the five currently active groups have released only one single release this year so far (compared to the fairly constant three-per-year average), and the other two haven't released anything commercially - no3b's only apparent 2012 effort, "Copy time", doesn't count as it only exists in TV ending theme form (in Haruna Kojima's little TV drama, "Meguttan") with its release constantly being pushed back to vapourware (i.e. no date set as of writing). Which begs the question: what's going on? And is the management love-affair with subunits over?

No one knows for sure, but I can offer two possible hypotheses: one as a simple consequence of current events in the AKB48 world, the other having greater implications for AKB48 strategy.

Too busy, no time!

A simple answer could be this: it's all down to logistics and work schedules. Especially in light of circumstances this year (for example, scandals and graduations, Tokyo Dome concerts, reshuffles and transfers, etc.) and with members scattered all over Japan (and even around the world, or going to be).  It might not be unfeasible to ferry members from Fukuoka, Osaka and Indonesia back to Japan for sub-unit activities, but it would be a costly exercise to do so. Add to the fact that certain members from all the sub-units have other various solo obligations and pursuits to fulfill, that scheduling in releases and activities for their sub-units becomes increasingly difficult. Not to mention AKB48's already loaded activity schedule as a group itself.

More on the soloist strategy later, but for now, even just taking their work and promotions into account, time is not in management's favour, let alone the girls. Leading to the dearth of releases in 2012 down to just one (or none) per group, some even competing against each other (Suika BABY and Shounen yo, Usu wo Tsuke). With the year drawing steadily to a close, the likelihood that they would announce one for the remainder of 2012 is becoming slim.

From sub-units to solo performers: an issue of changing strategy?

With the recent changes to AKB48 lately, as a result of various factors such as graduations, scandals and reshuffles, perhaps talent agencies and management have decided to rethink their strategy. The underlying reason is simple: every sub-unit seems to have a core "flagship" member that aids in boosting the whole sub-unit's profile and popularity. One of the clearest examples of this is Mayu Watanabe and Watarirouka Hashiritai, some even cynically labelling it as the "Mayuyu and friends" group (among other permutations). The logical next step is, then: why not just promote them individually as a fully-fledged soloist? Which is what Production Ogi has recently done with the aforementioned Mayuyu, what HoriPro discovered a while ago with Tomomi Itano, both to varying degrees of success. It's extended to non-flagship (but still popular) members too, for example Rino Sashihara (despite her scandal).  We've seen the recent successes of these soloists - not necessarily measured in physical sales numbers, but also through more subjective measures of popularity like fan reaction.

You don't have to look far to see possible clues of this shift in strategy. Cast your mind back to August 2012, during the Tokyo Dome concert team shuffles. The keen eye might have noticed the members that have transferred to other groups were (almost) all from different sub-units, with only no3b being left relatively untouched, effectively scattering the sub-unit members around Japan and Asia. Perhaps one could draw the (somewhat stretched) assumption that Aki-P himself is signalling his intentions, indirectly, concerning the future of the sub-unit in the AKB48 family. Furthermore, on a more subtle note, this might allay concerns about when sister groups would also have sub-unit groups formed.

Consider also the nature of soloists as compared to sub-units. Especially for more popular members within the sub-unit, they can continue to move forward as an all-rounded artist and entertainer, developing and refining their own image and boosting their profile without needing to seemingly dominate the sub-unit and overshadow the other members within. Same could also be said from the perspective of those lesser members, who might feel that they have been overshadowed previously - breaking out and going on a more solo pathway like overseas engagements (for example, Aki Takajo and Haruka Nakagawa), although it may not be as grand as a solo single debut, does help to further their own efforts in raising their own profile in a sea of idols trying to compete for fans' attention. For management agencies, it may even become more flexible in the long-run, giving more freedom and opportunity in promoting the individual member, especially once she graduates out of AKB48 (having already built up that portfolio of professional work and stock of popularity/media exposure).

The nails in the premature coffin? 

It seems more and more management agencies have begun to take notice of this: Production Ogi's adding the dear leader, Minami Takahashi, to their soloist arsenal, whilst Watanabe Entertainment decided to forge ahead with Yuki Kashiwagi's own solo debut. Not to mention Yuka Masuda and her lead involvement in the forthcoming musical, THE WIZ, and as previously mentioned, the members who are going overseas. Members who were originally a part of a sub-unit have benefited greatly in the trend's early stages, but now it's time to take the next step forward and progress in their professional development within AKB48. 

Does this all mean that the sub-unit is dying a slow but painful death? Not necessarily. Remember that a sub-unit can take on any form, size and extent of temporality - one could refer to Rino Sashihara's backdancers, AnRiRe, as example of this in action recently. And who's to say that the sub-unit cycle will never repeat itself for the newer members of AKB48? There's no stopping Production Ogi from bundling Miori Ichikawa into Watarirouka, for example. Nevertheless, post-Tokyo Dome represents a new chapter in the history of AKB48 and for many, given the trends lately, the concept of a soloist, individual aspiration and image is getting greater prominence within the AKB48 world. And suffice to say, the sub-unit might have to take a backseat.