2012 Year in Review - Part One: Million

This is the first in a four-part series in my 2012 Year in Review series of posts. An introduction can be found here. 

11/12/2012: Article updated with Eien Pressure figures.

The numbers tell it all: 8 million weekly releases. All four AKB48 singles included, with this year's Manatsu no Sounds good breaking yet another AKB48 record at 1.6 million weekly. Two Guinness World Records were added to the trophy cabinet. Last year the group snagged the much-coveted Japan Record Award as well, a milestone in itself.

Yes, the juggernaut cash-cow that is AKB48 is at the height of its popularity peak. Whilst 2011 was ascent after ascent, in 2012, they appeared to have reached the summit.




There's really no secret to AKB48's winning recipe for sales success. After all, it's the loyal wota fanbase that helps drive its sales momentum, lured in by handshake events and voting tickets enclosed in many a single and album release. 2012 was no exception: the majority of sales this year were made up of theatre editions, which are primarily sold as part of handshake event applications. And of course, the election single (Manatsu no Sounds good), itself a traditionally "power purchasing incentivised"[1] release, presented another big chance for AKB48 to reap in the cash. Which, of course, they did.

Is that necessarily a bad thing that it's the wota, and not the general populace, that's propping up the sales? One could argue the merits and demerits of such a strategy until the end of time, but a sale is a sale. Have a look at Figure 1.

Fig. 1: first-week non-Theater edition sales as a % of total first-week sales. Numbers sourced from Nielsen Soundscan and Oricon. 

There's nothing inherently "new" in the graph that fans don't know about - as previously mentioned, it's no surprise that theater editions make up the bulk of first week sales - but a quick regression (the green line) purports to show that the slice of the pie is slowly gravitating towards the wota end of the spectrum. Whilst I'll let you make up your own mind on the practical interpretation of these results, it proves the fundamental result: AKB48, regardless of its newfound penetration into the mainstream media and social psyche, is still propelled and driven to heights after heights by the wota faithful.

The question on everybody's lips throughout 2012 in regards to sales and popularity was the inevitable: is AKB48 starting to decline in popularity? Some critics suggest the gradual fall has already started, especially if one takes a look at soloist and subunit sales figures, whilst others have taken a more moderate approach and implied that such declines, whenever they happen, are a natural circumstance of any an idol group. Based purely on sales numbers and percentages alone, that may appear to be the case, but it's still too early to make a definitive call. Recent handshake allotment results might indicate a general slowdown in the velocity of popular member "block sell-outs"; however, a manipulation of overall sales figures do not necessarily indicate that overall numbers have been declining - in fact, there has not been much difference between UZA and Gingham Check. Surprisingly, at least to this writer, this year's Janken single, Eien Pressure, had a higher mainstream take-up, percentage wise, than last year's Ue kara Mariko. Of course, from AKB48 management's point of view, the most important figure is the bottom line effect to profitability. A quick (and rough) calculation of revenue from sales (first week) in Figure 2 appears generally to be cyclical in nature throughout the past two years. Take note, however, that the level of sales revenue between Gingham Check and UZA has been dipped copmared with Flying Get and Kaze wa Fuiteiru. Again, it remains to be seen just how much long-term effect Atsuko Maeda's graduation and AKB48's so-called "reformation" will have on overall sales.

Fig. 2: total sales revenue from physical AKB48 singles and albums (in JPY) for 2011 and 2012.
Nevertheless, irrespective of the current state of sales figures and numbers, the media blitz and exposure has continued throughout 2012. CMs and product tie-ins have been dime a dozen, with sister groups (especially NMB48 and HKT48), subunits and soloists providing even more marketing opportunities for all involved, from giant tech companies (Google, HP, NTT docomo) to consumer retail (7&i Holdings, UHA, Toyota). In fact, the spectacle of Atsuko Maeda's graduation, alone, turned into a giant, walking billboard for AKB48, itself being pimped to oblivion (especially as the time for her to get out drew closer). Some members wanting to broaden their professional career path have been given opportunities and roles in dramas, musicals, manzai competitions (e.g. R-1 Grand Prix) and films alike. They may (or may not) have the same "glamour" as a "million seller" might, but one won't miss seeing them at least once on TV or on billboards throughout the country. Even if sales might indeed be declining, their level of media exposure has not (yet) abated.

As 2012 begins to draw to a close, we are ultimately left wondering just where AKB48 will end up. Will they bow out on a high, or slowly fade into oblivion just like many an idol group before them? History and the course of natural circumstance suggest the latter, but as AKB48 begins to "reform" and set itself up for the future beyond Tokyo Dome, only time will tell when (not whether) their million-seller streak will come to an end.

[1]: aka. The incentive to purchase multiple copies of the same single for the purposes of power voting a particular member/s during the General Senbatsu Election.