2012 Year in Review - Part Four: Succession

Looking forward is much more difficult than looking back. What happened in the past is easier to reflect upon in hindsight, than trying to predict the future. My previous article in this four-part series discussed on the exits. Graduations will be inevitable. But AKB48 needs to keep moving forward; they cannot stand still after Acchan has left. So in this final part of my four-part series examining AKB48 during the course of 2012, I will aim to personally reflect on the various aspects of AKB48, especially throughout 2012, that help to set the entire group up for the future years to come.

Passing the Baton

Who left to fill the shoes vacated by Acchan? I have previously discussed on the topic of centers before, mentioning names that we will only see more of in times ahead. But succession is more than just taking up the center role in subsequent performance/s. It is the complete progression of mindset and notion, both on the part of the role taker (the girls) and the observers (the fans and buying public).

For the girls, it is leadership: they must be ready to bear the responsibility to lead. One cannot just dump everything onto Minami Takahashi, or any of the management. How to lead? It is not the leadership in the traditional managerial sense, but in image and action. What kind of image? No one can replace Acchan, or be a carbon-copy of. But they must lead by presenting a fresh, revitalised image to their consumers. They themselves must attempt to seek the confidence and implicit approval of the consuming public, not merely leaving it all up to Aki-P's own design, whether its regarding themselves individually or as a group.

I suspect many of the older-generation members feel their days are almost numbered within the group. Indeed, throughout 2012 there has been an implicit campaign in promoting the idea of "the next generation"; the Tokyo Dome DVD/Blu-ray interviews contrasting the first generation looking back and the new generation looking forward are well worth watching. But actions speak louder than words, opportunities must be taken instead of merely speaking about them as "dreams". Management may set up (for the girls), but without concerted co-operation from both parties, fans will only be left wondering about the state of the group's and its future relevance.

The New Ship

What will the AKB48 of the future look like? Besides the apocalyptic vision as portrayed by AKB0048, we are able to see glimpses today of the AKB48 going forward, post-Tokyo Dome.

It is clear to every observant fan that Haruka Shimazaki ("Paruru"), Mayu Watanabe ("Mayuyu") and Jurina Matsui are going to play very important roles in the makeup of the front line of AKB48. All three are in UZA, and the latter two play a central role in the forthcoming (30th) AKB48 single, So long!. For Paruru, quite luckily in fact more than anything, Eien Pressure came at the right time of her ascendancy up the stairway to center. Indeed, the three of them already have an established image in the eyes of the buying public, and throughout 2013 and beyond, it will only become more prominent.

But it's not just about those three. One need look no further than the Undergirls (coupling song) lineups of UZA and So long! for patterns to emerge. Most notably out of the lineups, we are beginning to see the emergence of Rina Kawaei ("Ricchan"). You may be able to justify her being the lead center of Rino Sashihara's minor dance sub-unit, AnRiRe, given that she's knocked Sasshi off to become the center girl of Ikujinashi Masquerade's music video and Type-A cover art. During shuffled sub-unit performances, she is usually the center, if not close to. And of course, she even has held her own solo event, despite having no individual commercial release of any sort whatsoever thus far. To any observer, it's very clear management has bigger plans for her.

Given the liquid nature of the 48 family, we also need to look at the other groups. In SKE48, members like Yuria Kizaki, Manatsu Mukaida and Kanon Kimoto are regularly featured in AKB48 singles of late, let alone the front lines of SKE48's own A-sides. NMB48 also has its central trio: Sayaka Yamamoto, Miyuki Watanabe and Nana Yamada; but we must also not dismiss the relevance of up-and-coming members like Fuuko Yagura and Shu Yabushita. Furthermore, we can see the few young and "fresh" HKT48 aces such as Haruka Kodama, Sakura Miywaki and Meru Tashima regularly seen in front of HKT48 lineups of late. Some of these names have, like Jurina & co., also featured as part of the "next generation" of AKB48, reinforcing the liquid nature of the AKB48 family.

Thus we are able to get an idea of what this "ship" will look like. But will it sail? In all likelihood, it should - the wota will still have incentives to continue their consumption patterns if all goes as planned.

Ambition and Goal

Where does this ship intend to head, though? What are the obstacles it faces? Succession is never easy and those involved will inevitably face hindrances along the way.

The sea is already rough. The girls individually and the entire group face their antis - most "pushed" girls do anyway: look no further than the divided opinion surrounding Paruru, let alone the past murmurings surrounding Yuihan and Jurina, during the Oogoe days. Of course, most criticism and hate is all bark and no bite; nothing material ever eventualises (unless the girl has been involved in some sort of rule-breaking scandal and the 2ch netizens wish to dig some dirt out) and such pessimism is so common nowadays that many just shrug it off. Even ignoring the antis, there's also the issue of whether AKB48, as a whole, has started to lose its luster and whether, post the inevitability of older-generation graduations, the next-generation are capable enough in continuing the pedigree.

I don't know what future strategy Aki-P and his stable of management has in store, but I believe it will be an evolutionary one; one that aims to maintain and improve the successful dynamic. The girls obviously challenge themselves day in, day out, hoping to build on their strengths, discover their own unique talent and ultimately, make AKB48 even more successful than it already is. A steep hill to climb, a high bar (set by much of the older-gen) to reach, yes, but given how much exposure and variety of experiences they (or at least some of them) have already, all they really need to overcome is the perception (not actual ability) that they're capable enough to take on the baton.

Final Words

2012 has already been an eventful year, and an important chapter-turning point in AKB48's already decorated history. More than anything, it gives the next-generation something to reflect and build upon. The older-gen may not have all left as of writing - Yuko, Kojiharu, Mariko et al are still around - but the time to prepare is now. They have, or are about to inherit, a solid foundation that has been, although set-up by Aki-P, executed by the older-gen. There may be high expectations of them, but I like to be optimistic: AKB48 will be stronger than ever.

Onwards to 2013, then.