Hetare Center

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"If you're presented with a choice between two options, take the third one."

You could sum up the senbatsu election results like that. Marketers, media commentators and the like originally framed it as a two-horse battle between Yuko and Mayu yet in the end, it was the black horse Rino Sashihara ("Sasshi"), widely expected to have dropped a few places from 2012, that took out top honors instead. The atmosphere turned from a tear-fest to one of celebration and, curiously, laughter, as the former rising star of AKB48 rose back from the grave and stole the thunder away from the top two perennial favorites. Rarely anyone expected the preliminary results to follow through all the way to the final results, let alone predicted this before the voting "stations" opened.

Let's have a closer look at the results and the evening that was.

The numbers game.

Immediately the antis flared up. Allegations of vote rigging were spread throughout certain pockets of the fandom. Suspicions were raised as to the integrity of the elections. From "whole cities and management offices all mass voted for Sasshi" to "those cashed-up Chinese wota voting ~90,000 times for Sasshi", there were all sorts of hearsay being floated around. 

But really, the elections were, and have always been, a numbers game from the start. Power voting, whether you think it is acceptable or not, pretty much defines the elections every year, where mass purchasing power is the representation of a show of support. And if you think management does not care about voting integrity, consider that they tightened up the requirements for mobile phone fan-club voting this year, effectively closing a few more loopholes in fanclub voting. 

Let's not forget the general rising affluence of middle-class China and, as a likely consequence, I think it would be entirely reasonable that they, too, like the extreme Japanese wota, would spend exorbitant amounts of their hard-earned money to vote in the thousands (or more) for one girl. This ain't old-school communist China in the '90s anymore. And of course, there isn't any difference between a group of wota mass voting and a whole town or office mass voting. If you don't think it's a fair practice, then you probably would not have voted from the start anyway. In any case, there's really no stopping you from doing the same thing if you had that much amount of money to spend either. 

Winners and... not-so-winners.

Rather than doing this member-by-member, I'm going to do this group-by-group.

HKT48 - Sashihara & Co.

Big winners that night, with Sasshi taking out #1 and all the girls that ranked having improved their position from 2012. More on Sasshi later in another section, but good to see a few more HKT48 girls getting ranked apart from the usual suspects. The result is that we've got at least one HKT48 representation in every ranking group, and with Sasshi leading the charge and making all the headlines, that's a good thing given the flow-on effects that will occur. 

Haruppi finally getting ranked is more a case of "about time" than anything else. Sakura moving up to UG shows marked progress in the strength of her fanbase and popularity, whilst for Meru and Mio, it's a validation of what we already know about their recent uptick in popularity. For Lovetan, it's a marked recovery from her slump last year - perhaps a regenerative show of support from her fans, and being in HKT48 may have gained her new ones too. In the end, I would've liked to see slightly more representation from HKT48 (whatever happened to Moripo), but it's probably still early days yet and in any case, I'm still pretty satisfied with the outcome. 

NMB48 - New gains down low, but it's a hard knock life upstairs.

With almost 25% of Future Girls filled with new and existing NMB48 ranking stalwarts and the coveted center position grabbed by the up-and-coming Shu (Yabushita), it seems like a natural place for them to be ranked in. Whilst they may not garner the same levels of popularity strength as some of the others in SKE48 or AKB48 (mainly due to their length of time since they debuted), they're slowly making inroads; I'd argue that some of them finally get the formal recognition they deserve (looks at Fuuchan) given their latent popularity. Filling out the bottom, and a few other representations above, is a good start. 

But I'm more concerned about what's happening up at the top. Votes demonstrate Nana's popularity is growing healthily, but I expected more from Sayanee and Milky to be honest. Blame the strength of the competition, perhaps, but with all the hype surrounding Milky, ranking on the edge of senbatsu (only a few less than a relatively measly 1000 votes separates her from her fellow fisher) was a little bit of a mixed bag. Of course, being ranked in senbatsu per se is nothing to sneeze at - remember, they were both UG last year - and tripling your vote count from 2012 is above the general average of double. But I would've expected at least above Sayanee, let alone a few notches higher. Which, given the fairly wide vote count gap between her and Sayanee, is probably more of a testament to the latter's enduring popularity strength. Next year, though, there should be some improvements with (at least) Mariko and Tomochin gone. But for now, "Kami-7" is a while away. 

SKE48 - The game-changing army. Breaking barriers, challenging the status quo and fortifying the rest.

Unlike NMB48 above, we did see the powerful Jurina/Rena combo break into the coveted psychological "Kami-7" group, at the expense of long-standing 1st gen elders Takamina and Kojiharu. Whilst Rena still has not beaten Jurina for the second year in a row, both of them displacing the big AKB48 guns could well be described as game-changing, as well as being a significant morale boost for SKE48 overall. They've had a bit of a rocky start to the year, what with shuffles, manager drama and mass graduations clouding their thoughts of late, but this show of support (or "present" as most of the members like to term it) should drive their motivations forward in advancing SKE48's strength in the 48 Group; perhaps a signal for top management to start giving them a greater role in the family. 

The other major news headline from the SKE48 camp is little-known Aya Shibata coming from nowhere and landing herself a spot as UG center, surprising many - not because she isn't popular per se, but nowhere near the degree of popularity expected to rank in the upper 10-low 20s, and usurping all but one SKE48 UG notables (that one I'll get to in a minute). Whilst this is definitely a huge boost for Aya's own opportunities for popularity and public exposure overall, it just reinforces how powerful wota can be when they get together and mass power vote. 

Ahead of Aya, though, apart from Jurina/Rena was, surprisingly, Akarin. Surprisingly, even for me, she broke through to the coveted senbatsu group, almost quadrupling over her previous total, landing just within easy striking distance of Milky (who, I must admit, has an even greater level of latent popularity) and also becoming the first non-Jurina/Rena SKE48 member to even be in an AKB48 election senbatsu. Again, I'd suggest that power voting was in play here - her fishing may have counted for some, but that isn't necessarily, by itself, a formulae for instant success (compare with Milky's odd rank for example). Not surprisingly, on a personal level, I was incredibly happy with the outcome when I heard about it. She's been in an election UG ever since she ranked, so breaking into senbatsu is a pretty big achievement for her. I expect her to play a bigger role in SKE48 overall going forward, and of course, I would always welcome that with open arms. 

As for the rest, we see general incremental improvements in both position and vote count across the board. Again, SKE48 heavily dominated UG this year with pretty much the same few members as last year (minus the graduates), taking out over half the positions on offer. In particular, we see Kaotan building up on her newfound gains in popularity (thanks to her forthcoming solo debut and 1-Komeda video clip fame on G+) and Non getting a major boost into UG. As for the rest, we see new entrants, mainly from the pre-shuffle Team E lineup, finally getting the validation of their popularity (or at least a combined show of support from Team E fans) instead of just being "Non and co.", and subsequently rounding up the SKE48 push into the final ranks.

To be quite honest, I would've liked to have seen Nao and Nannan rank, but perhaps for the 5th gen, it may still be early days yet and, given the nature of the competition this year, that may have well been the case. Nevertheless, this is an already impressive result: Kami-7, new AKB48 senbatsu entrant, staking their claims in UG and leading it, as well as wider Team E representation. Let's see what management thinks about it going forward from this result.

AKB48: The status-quo challenged. 

The old guard is under threat. Not quite a bloodbath, but it's slowly being attacked. Never mind Sasshi for a second; there were quite a lot of downranks this year elsewhere. Let's start from the top: Takamina and Kojiharu being knocked back out of Kami-7 is, itself, fairly significant. Whilst Yukirin and Mariko are holding out comfortably well near the top of the food chain, the same can't be said for those further down it. Tomochin, despite graduating very soon, didn't fare quite as well as I hoped, eking out only a modest quarter gain and ended up dropping a few ranks - a little disappointing way to finish off her AKB48 career. Yuihan may have done well, but Paruru ranking outside of the top 10 was surprising to me. Given her recent media exposure and gains in popularity of late, low top 10 was a real possibility. Instead, she wedged herself neatly between Yuihan and Tomochin. Senbatsu was to be expected after all - this is Paruru, mind you - but for one touted as the major next-generation aces of AKB48, this may not have been the result most expected. In fact, it certainly wasn't the result she expected either, judging by her entire speech sequence and body character. 

And then there's UG and below. Umechan knocked back into UG and, more surprisingly, Kitarie as well - the latter being more significant since she's rarely ever been in anything but an election senbatsu. The former is also why I'm being only cautiously optimistic at the back of my mind about this year's 16th place holder. As for Miichan, widely expected to have lost a few ranks thanks to her scandal, she didn't fare too badly, even managing to overtake Kitarie. I'm guessing her latent popularity ensured she wasn't hit too hard in the ranks. Mocchi also lost a bit of ground, as did Amina (but at least for the latter, being Next Girls center is a decent consolatory prize). 

It's not all bad news though in the AKB48 camp, but only if you look at the up-and-coming girls. Ricchan and Annin were the big winners in this group, especially for the former given her fans' surrounding support campaign and, of course, being the center of BKA48 and the publicity that follows it. A few of the other ex-Team 4ers managed to stay put, too; incremental gains but enough to retain their positions from last year. Not so for some of the more "legacy" members of AKB48, which ended up being a mixed bag: some have improved noticeably, some have slipped while others didn't even rank (notably Myao, who has ranked every single other year but this). Clearly, the momentum is shifting towards the more junior of the cohort. And, surprisingly, no AKB48 KKS either. With some of the legacy members slowly leaving the group, greater motivation needs to be found to enable more fans to mass vote for their KKS oshimen, otherwise a glaring gap will soon follow (and occupied by the other sister groups). Whilst it's not an issue in the short-medium term (Ricchan and other ex-Team 4 members are flourishing right now), management strategy may need to address this soon. But I'd say it's only a matter of time before 12th-gen and up will begin to make their mark. 

In any case, the signs are telling for some and the writing is on the wall. Some may need to reconsider their futures in the group. To say it bluntly, their time has passed and I expect a few more graduates from the AKB48 camp in the not-too-distant future. 

Overseas and Graduates: Stability, trying to regain ground lost and resurgence.

For the overseas members, it's a mixed bag. Sae held her ground whilst notching up a generally incremental improvement in her vote count. No doubt some of the Chinese and existing Sae faithful may have played a part. The fact that she announced her sole devotion to SNH48 may have sweetened the result even further, substantiating her resolve and providing a renewed foundation for an expansion in her support. Consider it her "official" response to her dual-membership during Budokan in late April: that is, a finger up in the face of management. 

Akicha, on the other hand, slipped - her gains not enough to prevent her from falling a few ranks. Perhaps the Indonesian fans have yet to be fully convinced by her in JKT48, or at least their showing was not strong enough this time around. A consequence of strengthening competition, too. But at least it was up on her all-time totals this year (after suffering a fall in votes last year). 

Nacchan's showing in this year's ranks was, at the very least, a form of re-acceptance by the faithful, after a long absence from the media spotlight (thanks to her scandal earlier last year). Her feature in this year's documentary probably helped her cause a little, too. At the edge of Future Girls may be low, but it's more than enough at this point - just being back in the rankings is already great. Perhaps we may begin to see more of her in the months to come beyond just the election single. Or, even, a formal re-acceptance back into the 48 Group. 

Overall comments

Needless to say, the lineup is definitely looking less "AKB48 1st/2nd-gen top heavy" and more evenly spaced out. Sister groups are making significant inroads in terms of popularity and for once, we have centers from every single domestic sister group. Suddenly, this election is sparking renewed interest in the entire 48 Group. Most of all, it's actually getting people talking about them again. Aki-P's strategy of a more "fluid" 48 Group landscape seems to be working well.

Yes, Mariko-sama will graduate.

Then there was that bombshell. Mariko, long-time elder stateswoman of AKB48, announcing her graduation tentatively as quickly as late July in Fukuoka. Her graduation prospects had evolved into a memetic joke across the entire (international) fandom, but now it has finally become reality. It may be too soon for some, or long overdue for others. Whatever your opinion, she's more than capable of surviving in the entertainment industry by herself. 

To me, the timing is a little odd, given that the 32nd single will be released a month later than her intention to graduate in Fukuoka Dome in late July. But (and this is just my guess only) it's likely that she'll still be featured in the single anyway. Plus, there's all the contractual hoopla that may see her officially graduate even a while after the Dome concert. 

In any case, we're now down to three officially surviving 1st-gen members. Funnily enough, they're all from no3b. 

All hail our new theater manager center comedienne.

So, about Sashihara.

The butt of many a joke within the 48 Group community - fans, media and members alike. Once known as the hetare queen, and now the undisputed variety show regular. Was scandalised, but being in HKT48 gave her a new sense of direction in the group. And now, after years of Acchan and Yuko duopoly, she is our new center.

It's very clear that her upsurge was at the direct expense of Yuko, Mayu and Yukirin. Last year it was 4-1-2-3. Now, it's 1-2-3-4. The "Sasshi effect", I call it. It was all going well for those three. Nothing went wrong with them, nor their strength of support from their fanbases (although I suspect Mayu may have a few things to say about this at the back of her mind...). Blame it all on Sasshi, then, for knocking them all off their perch. In a fashion that is, well, very Sasshi-esque. Not a few gaping mouths, self-defeating laughs (especially from Yuko) and even horrified faces (the Acchan one was gold) ensued. In fact, she was too hung up on the float - itself cliched, cringeworthy and, at the very least, a satirical slap in the face on Acchan's Tokyo Dome send-off - that she forgot to sit on the coveted center chair. Literally. Despite her being recently "promoted" to part-time co-theater manager position of HKT48 (shared with Ozaki), she's still very much an idol wimp and chatterbox wimp at heart.

And you know what? This is exactly what the 48 Group needs. Someone that is refreshingly different and un-center like (in the traditional sense) to the usual suspects. A bit of laughter, a bit of self-defeating humour here and there, and a bit of underdog drama. Just as I honestly thought AKB48 was starting to become too serious (and, dare I say it, boring) up the top, suddenly, it may have found just what it needed to become, well, fun again. It's getting people talking about AKB48 again, instead of merely being bombarded daily in the media about them.

Antis be damned. Scandals be damned. I for one welcome our new hetare overlord.