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| If you're wondering what the relevance of this is: I'm getting old. And so is this person. |
The condition of now
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| No need to count. There's 36 of them. |
I suppose the Yasushi Akimoto Inc. of now needs no real introduction. Four interconnected pop idol groups, with AKB48 being the de-facto flagship group (and, for the purposes of this post, the synecdoche representative of every sister group under Aki-P's total control) and with one other designated "official rival" (in theory, that is. In practice, one could argue it's essentially no different to the other four given recent cross-group media appearances and promotions). Members either managed by the groups' management companies themselves, or through external talent agencies. They are Japan's so-called "national idol group", or 国民的アイドル, giving the group household name status and generating millions of yen in revenue from sales and promotional activities, and are beginning to exploit their opportunities overseas in Aki-P's quest for global exposure and eventual dominance.
But what of now? Atsuko Maeda, the "face" of AKB48, is going the way of the dodo and pursuing her very own path, come 27th August 2012. Their Tokyo Dome concert, a major milestone for many a member, is just around the corner - late next month, to be exact - and the fandom is a rife with speculation on whose graduation is next. Scandals are running their courses, with Rino Sashihara being the latest victim of her own fallacies that have occurred earlier during her career. Cross-group collaborations (for example, Mayu Watanabe and Nogizaka 46) and exchanges are in full force. We have had four senbatsu elections and two janken tournaments, with another coming up in September. And, apart from Team N who is reportedly getting one real soon, there have been no new stages in 2012. Symptoms of a marked and increasingly complex shift from a group of humble beginnings performing regularly (and still are) on the 8th floor of Don Quixote in Akihabara, to a massive pop idol franchise of more than 250 members, representative of Japan and its popular culture worldwide.
To analyse the implications of each and every major event in AKB48's history thus far would take countless hours and posts. Thus, we need to take a more broad look at how we came to this point in history.
In retrospect
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| Tourist bus queues. Only of a much more grave nature. |
One could conceivably trace the core of the current team lineup and formation back to the defining moment in AKB48 team history: the 2009 Nippon Budokan concert. Teams were fundamentally shaken up to the very core, relationships shifted, team images defined more clearly and a degree of leadership power conferred to the captains of each team. But as AKB48 began earning more and more #1s, breaking more sales records, creating more sister groups, and members coming in and out of the system (at a rate of nearly 30:1 in vs. out), we have had an explosion in size, managerial complexity and talent. We're already up to the 14th generation of (AKB) members now, with more from other sister groups (for example, HKT48 2nd generation) soon to follow.
All this is compounded by the various successes and downfalls of members, either individually or on the whole. Whilst the aforementioned Sasshi-gate scandal of late immediately comes to mind, one must not forget the Mina Oba suspension, the dismissals of Rumi Yonezawa and Natsumi Hirajima, and the allegations of misbehaviour amongst the NMB48 ranks. SDN48 has also bitten the dust and moved on. On the other hand, we are seeing the natural cycles of popularity taking effect: Miho Miyazaki had her time in the sun, whilst members like Haruka Shimazaki, Miyuki Watanabe and Yui Yokoyama are hot property right now. Meanwhile, others are beginning to carve out their own futures, as is the case with Misaki Iwasa and Yuka Masuda in enka and musicals respectively.
International exposure and expansion has also added another dimension to the system, ever since the days AKB48 made the pan-Eurasian trip to Paris in 2009 and traveled across the Pacific to New York the same year. JKT48 is just starting to gain traction in its home town, whilst members are making the trips across the seas to various locations in Asia and around the world. They have received interviews and news media coverage ranging from CNN to News Corp., and Google appears to be one of its core allies in pushing for a global online media presence as celebrities.
Beyond Tokyo Dome
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| No, this isn't Kaze wa Fuiteiru II. Or some cheap Japanese attempt at Chinese martial art flicks. |
Trying to determine what Aki-P is going to do next is an exercise in futility: he is clearly planning out for a post-Atsuko Maeda future, albeit arguably earlier than what he probably expected, and he has made suggestions that 2012 is going to be "the year of reform", but there exists a whole art form in predicting Akimoto Inc.'s future moves - a look at the ominous codes in a certain diary is already proof of this. The better question, then, becomes "what should be done?" and "what is the likelihood of certain things happening in the future?".
Let's have a look at three major items in most fans' wish-lists and prediction bingo charts:
"Please sir, can I have some more?"
Every fan and their dog wants them. It is no real secret that we have had a dearth of new, original stages, apart from KII 3rd and the forthcoming N 3rd. The cries for new Team S, A, K and B stages online are as loud as Tony Abbott preaching the doom and gloom of the carbon tax pre-1st July 2012. From a pure cost accounting and ROI perspective, new stages cost a lot of money to produce and rental/leasing fees (for theaters) are fairly high, that management might be reluctant to invest in designing and planning new ones for performance, choosing rather to milk the current ones dry until they have run their profitability course. On the other hand, the theater show is the essence and soul of AKB48, and the notion of eliminating it simply ruins its brand image - marketing gurus might prefer to call it a "halo product" for AKB48. Stage renewal, then, seems increasingly more inevitable as Aki-P wishes to turn a leaf into a new chapter for the group, and it is likely that the profits from stage performances should finally be in the black, rather than the red. The question, then, becomes more of a "when" than "if". And not just "when", but "how long after Tokyo Dome".
Spread your wings far and wide, cultural differences be damned
Rie Kitahara hinted strongly at TPE48 coming into fruition a week ago, during her Taipei visit press conference, and SNH48 is a sign Aki-P wants a slice of the lucrative Chinese entertainment market. But has international expansion worked? JKT48 has its own issues that are well known amongst the fandom: their management's out-of-the-loop nature was very well evident concerning Saitama Super Arena streaming on Google+. Even more concerning is the essential, but controversial, "no dating" rule that has underpinned the whole Japanese idol industry for decades. Whilst it works in its home country, to varying degrees of acceptance and success depending on your perspective of the rule, in more liberalised countries (even throughout Asia), it is indeed questionable as to whether cultural differences are accepting of this, citing issues such as human rights and freedom for one. Of course, we should not forget the elephant in the room: this is ultimately a Japanese pop cultural institution and the notion of 16-24 girls singing and dancing on stage in a cute but innocent manner might be a little hard to grasp for many a foreigner. Heck, many Japanese wota have even jokingly touched on the subject of a Western nation taking on the 48 group system and The Australian has compared explaining the senbatsu election akin to "an Australian decoding cricket to someone from outside the Commonwealth" (Wallace, 2012). Regardless, the Yasushi Akimoto mothership seems hell bent on expanding its borders. But it must be equally mindful of the many challenges it will face whilst doing so.
Autonomy
With sister groups like SKE48 and NMB48 increasingly becoming as big as they are, some fans are desiring a partial cessation of sorts with the mothership flag carrier - the most prominent surrounding the issue of senbatsu elections. These elections were originally underpinned, or so goes the folklore, by the notion of management wanting to give fans a say in the formation of the senbatsu lineups for each single. By that logic, some vocal fans are asking why can't (in this case) the troops at Nagoya have their own senbatsu election? Surely their size (three permanent teams, with a sizeable number of Kenkyuusei to boot) and popularity (a string of weekly and daily #1s to date) is enough to justify their case. Of course, one needs to consider the impact of independent elections on management financially, whether this makes a sound business case or not, and on the girls - do some really want to be told twice in a year that they didn't make it (either to senbatsu or even ranked publicly), and suffer the same heartbreaking emotional toil of finding out such? One might also extend the same argument to the dearth of sister-group exclusive sub-units, when AKB48 have five, as well as an additional five soloist commercial releases. The issue, then, becomes more of agency rather than money - except for a few (Rena, Kuumin, Churi), the rest are still stuck under AKS. Time will ultimately tell.
Just shake it, shake it, baby...
Do the four (five, if Team 8 comes to eventual fruition) teams need a massive shake-up a la Nippon Budokan 2009? Team 4 hasn't been getting the level of success it sorely needs to stand up on its own merits, if recent handshake lottery reports are to be believed, and the recent graduations and scandals of late have messed with the equilibrium of some teams (I'm looking at you, Team A). And what about those five girls left in team limbo? If one does occur, it does indeed coincide with suggestions of "reform". No one, not even management, can ignore the human impact of shuffles. But of course, every team shuffle is emotionally stressful for both the girls and fans alike. Nevertheless, these shuffles are mostly forward-looking rather than for the short-term: the 2009 one was designed to structure AKB48 for the future as having three teams of distinct image and character, and there's always the well-accepted notion that you perform more effectively as a team when not necessarily working with your friends too. And Tokyo Dome might as well be the best place to do it.
What about the issue of "the next center" of AKB48? That I will touch upon in a future post, as I've got more to say on the matter.
Final words
2012 is, so far, a big year for AKB48, there is no doubting that. Fans are rushing out and trying to beat the servers in a bid for Tokyo Dome tickets in a highly-charged fashion like no other. Atsuko Maeda's pending graduation is going to be a sad farewell for many, whilst on the other hand, management is getting a lot of heat concerning how Sasshi-gate was handled. All this is symbolic of how far we have come from the cold, wintry days of December 2005. What lies ahead is anyone's guess, but one thing is for certain: there is much left in store for Yasushi Akimoto Inc., and having said that, I have only really scratched the surface.
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