Some Booze, Blokes and a Smoko

This can be interpreted in so many different ways, I don't know where to even start...

If you haven't heard already, five HKT48 girls just got given their marching orders - I don't buy this "they left for their own personal reasons" spin, and neither would most people. Days before this happened, one of the girls who left, Yui Komori (Uitan, hereafter), left a rather ominous, premature graduation message (translation here) on Google+, which was quickly redacted later on and taken down. Not long before that, the ever-controversial Rino Sashihara (Sasshi, hereafter) left some rather strange comments about two of the girls and about AKS management in general. And earlier this month, Yuko Sugamoto (Yuukosu hereafter) apologised in response to some allegations against her for meeting up with some guys. Rumours were, and still are, flying around concerning alleged scandalous behaviour - underage drinking, smoking and a select few wota getting "special" treatment - from the HKT48 girls which possibly led to the sacking, even before Sasshi and Uitan posted.

And as we all know very well, AKB48 scandals and the fanbase are a rather lethal mix.

Das Boot

One of the major questions behind all of this, that many fans are asking, is "did management act too swiftly and mercilessly in response to these allegations?" Let's take a look at what we have here:

• The original source of the allegations about the "select few wota", mainly surrounding Yuukosu, were from 2ch.
• Uitan's Google+ post, which contains this interesting quip (credits to ): "I've seen that the world of show business can be a frightening place. There's lots I learned. One shouldn't easily put one's trust in people."
• Sasshi's various cryptic Google+ posts. 
• Management statements regarding their decision to leave.
• An anonymous post left on Yahoo! Chiebukuro with more so-called details behind the alleged scandal. 

Note that the Google+ posts are left to open interpretation and there are no photos of the incident (as of writing). So most of these are just rumours and, unlike Sasshi-gate (something which I'll touch upon later), cannot as such be independently verified or "2ch connect-the-dots"ed by fans. Written allegations only get you so far. Therefore, whether management played the right hand by dealing harshly and quickly with this scandal ultimately depends on the nature, context and severity of the alleged behaviour. 

If, indeed, the rumours were true, then management absolutely did the right thing. The girls clearly should have taken the blatantly obvious hint behind Sasshi's transfer to HKT48 - their very own group: scandalous behaviour will not be tolerated once its leaked out in the open. And in this day and age of social media and the Internet, the flow of information becomes incredibly difficult to control. Better not get yourself involved in any scandalous behaviour and rule-breaking in the first case than to run the risk of getting caught. 

However, there's a critical qualification to what I said above: "If, indeed, the rumours were true...". Remember, we only have textual accounts of the events that have occurred, which are not as verifiable as something like visual evidence. Given how quickly management acted though, there's a sufficiently high probability (but not certainty) that the girls must have committed something of a serious nature to be given the sack this fast and this severe (five girls at once). Also note that the alleged rumours didn't include Uitan, so her circumstances in leaving might be different, if not altogether connected to this entire ordeal. Hence, we might assume that, from the perspective of management:

• Information asymmetry exists and management has sufficient enough information (that we fans don't necessarily know of) behind the case to make the decision that they did, or
• Management wants to quash the fire that's beginning to flare up, as quickly as possible, in order to prevent further damage to the brand/group, or
• This is a show of strength and authority by management, following the criticisms leveled at it by fans from the events of Sasshi-gate, or
• More than one of the above factors.

Now some of the factors I suggest might seem that management overreacted, which is plausible. The exact reasons behind dismissals, we will never know for sure and unlike Sasshi-gate, there are less factors of certainty to go with. Ultimately, the nature of the events leading up to the axing (who did what, the events that were committed, whether there was whistleblowing and tipping-off of management going on, etc.) is open to intense speculation. Which, obviously, will keep the fans busy.

The curse of Sashihara

The smug face that thousands love to hate.

We love to hate Sasshi. Well, except the Sasshi wota. And what better fortunes for the anti-Sasshi brigade than for this to happen. Ironic, given Sasshi's transfer to HKT48. Blaming Sasshi seems to be the order of the day, and we're seeing this in troves. There are two major camps in the anti-Sasshi school of thought:

• She whistleblowed to management (either HKT48's or direct to Togasaki), or at least to the captain (Chihiro Anai); therefore, if it wasn't for her, the girls wouldn't have got the sack. 
• Injustice by management that Sasshi got given a comparatively light punishment for the June 2012 revelations.

The first accusation suggests Sasshi desired a sense of self-justice and worth, given that she too suffered (arguably) and hence these girls shouldn't get away with it either. Or that there were possibly internal problems within HKT48 that she felt the need to inform management (and the captain) about, which might altogether be related to what the girls involved did. This latter suggestion seems to correlate quite closely with what Uitan posted on Google+, inferring that there is a mood of bitter rivalry, conflict and even irreverent behaviour within HKT48 - management turning a possibly blind eye on all this. Now these are all hyptothetical suggestions, of course, and by no means entirely plausible. Nevertheless, history (in general, not just AKB48) suggests whistleblowers are often shunned and despised by many that are involved in the wrongdoing but in any case, something needed to be done to uphold justice. Sure, it might be considered poor form to rat your team mates out anyway, especially since you yourself broke a (related but different) rule in times past, but would you turn a blind eye to wrongdoing if you purposely knew about it? And we need to consider the events of now, not then. 

The second accusation, however, is what is more likely to keep fans' blood boil hot. Perpetually. A sense of unfairness, if you like, that (assuming these rumours were true for a second) the four (five) girls get kicked out for drinking, smoking and having guys over, whilst Sasshi just gets a group identity change for breaking the established no-dating rule. Surely, if management were just, both should have gotten equal punishments? 

One common mistake is to equate the two incidents. It is better to approach the two in isolation. What happened with Sasshi, and the decisions (however flawed) that were made, is what happened then. People can judge for themselves on the performance of management in that case. However, given the differing circumstances of these events, one cannot assume that precedent of judgement should automatically apply, as is the case with common law. So to suggest management overreacted here because Sasshi got a lighter punishment is not necessarily correct. Note that I'm not trying to defend Sasshi here, nor to suggest that what she did should get a comparatively lighter punishment. What I am trying to say is that you cannot pass judgement on one and expect the same treatment thereafter for the rest, in the absence of reliable information. Remember, this is not the same as Sasshi-gate, where we had full colour photos alongside written details of what Sasshi did; in that incident, fans could clearly connect the dots for themselves. Not so in this case. Yes, management's actions this week infers that these girls might have actually committed a serious error for management to be this severe, but then again, you don't have the luxury of obtaining such information like they do (or that we did in Sasshi's own case). "What you don't know doesn't hurt you".

There is a third accusation, but one that's simply based on emotional irrationality: that Sasshi whistleblowed in order to gain an advantage for herself in HKT48 - a "manipulating bitch", if you like. That might very well be the case, but:

1. We don't know Sasshi's motives behind this for sure, let alone if she even whistleblowed in any shape or degree in the first place (this also applies to the first accusation previously mentioned).
2. People that do make such an accusation usually don't fully consider everything given to them and are just blindly stating this for the sake of, well, being a Sasshi hater. Or on any other emotive grounds. Or because it's "hip", "vogue" or "populist" to do so. We all know where this story ends up...

We all love our emotional tirades. It's commonplace in the fandom. But please, get a grip of yourself. Calm down, take a deep breath and think. 

The tainted river of dreams

We haven't even considered the impacts to HKT48 yet. But it's pretty simple, really: this is not a good start for HKT48's own path to success. All this, even without a major single debut yet. Yet, for those that are still surviving in HKT48, those bonds that have been formed since day one will surely be tested now, probably a lot earlier than what anyone suspected. Sasshi will be met with an even more glaring eye by fans and (possibly HKT48) girls alike than previously anticipated and as for that Kenkyuusei who allegedly leaked this info out, I suspect it'll be tough times for her. Bullied, perhaps, for causing such a ruckus. More importantly, questions will be asked by fans and top-level management in AKS alike surrounding the management and internal culture of HKT48 in general: in particular, why was this allowed to happen? 

And of course, all this in the spectre of Tokyo Dome. No one needs another scandal to happen less than one week before the biggest days in AKB48's entire history.