Crisis in Sakae...?

Everyone's favorite faces of surprise, shock and destructive doom. Well, almost everyone...

Doom and gloom predictions seem to be in vogue lately, if we're talking about SKE48. Looking at the news recently and going through the usual fan opinions might make one think SKE48 should go on life support, if it wasn't on it already.

Everyone is pointing to the higher than usual number of graduations as evidence to suppor their claim. Within the span of a year, we have had a total of seven graduates, and that's just from full team S/KII/E members. Now there are three spare spots unfilled, each in Team S and Team E, and one in Team KII. For the latter, you could justify that it is still fresh and therefore has some time to grow. On the other hand, Team S has been around since SKE48's inception and is already a fairly mature and solid team. As a point of comparison between the two, these vacancies in Team S looks startling. In addition, the captaincy position in Team S is also vacant. One could probably make two points at this stage regarding this whole situation:

• Looking at the graduates, the recent departing/-ed Team S members are all fairly old - no younger than 22. Here, we might have a situation that they're trying to make way for the Kenkyuusei to shine - an interesting point, no doubt, following Mariko's statement during the elections earlier this year. On a separate note, perhaps, if we take Rikako Hirata's or Tomoka Wakabayashi's leads, there's an increasing desire to focus on individual efforts (especially for the former). This point has been a fairly well-established graduation point historically speaking - the departing Atsuko Maeda is explaining her graduation in this very same way, too. If we take a dimmer view of the situation, however, the cynics might well suggest there actually is an air of discontent within SKE48, whatever those underlying issues may be (either internally or externally). Any of these points (well, maybe not the last one in my opinion, which I will refer to later) seem quite valid though and their graduations could be motivated by one or all of these factors.
• The question of "who will captain Team S" is one that needs to take into account personality, experience and leadership skills, something which can be both objectively accounted for and influenced by subjectivity. I personally feel either Masana, Jurina or (equally) Rena are good candidates (in that order). Regardless of who it is, perhaps this captaincy vacancy can also become a great time for Team S to, reflect rebuild and maybe "start afresh"? Not that they have been tainted by any so-called "scandals" to worry about at the moment (or so we think), but it could well serve to mark a new page in SKE48's history.

Other cynics might point to Jurina's transfer exchange (i.e. serving double duty in both Team S and K) as a destabilising factor for SKE48. Whilst there have been no immediate issues for her (or for the other members) so far on the surface, rumours of health problems continue to persist (although she has successfully recovered from a recent bout of hospitalisation) and there is always a risk of overworking - excess travel can play a major factor in workload and healthy lifestyle. Still, Jurina in Team K provides her, and by extension, the rest of SKE48, valuable learning opportunities, opportunities that will become increasingly important as she is both a current (Team S) ace and being labelled as part of the group of members fronting the "next-generation" of the entire AKB48 family. Note that she hasn't missed out on any Team S stages to date, or at least tries to attend most of them. So, on face value, there seems to be no impact to her relationship with Team S. Chalk that one up to the cynics. 

Another nail to the doom & gloom coffin can be found with recent announcements of the SKE48 theater planning to undergo renovation. This can be interpreted as a clear signal that, long term, their future is all but assured; otherwise, why bother investing money into renovations in the first place? When the theater is relaunched, hopefully we can see it as a fresh (re-)start of sorts, akin to what I previously mentioned with regards to Team S' captaincy issue. Take a hint: new stage/s, perhaps? Sure, there are some short-term teething problems: performing at various places throughout the region might pose a few logistical nightmares but these are really operational and managerial issues that shouldn't affect the group in any significant way. I suggest that this renovation period be for reflection, reconsolidation and rebuilding for the entire group. More importantly, it is a good time to start considering promotions (I'm looking squarely at BBQ aka. Kaori Matsumura...) in order to fill up those gaps crying out for member, especially with Team S.

It should also be noted as an aside that certain vocal pockets of fans have also been crying out for SKE48 to forge out a more independent pathway to success instead of piggybacking off AKB48's; a common case in point is with regards to senbatsu elections. I see two contrasting perspectives here: whilst SKE48 has indeed built up its own success (although I am personally still not sold on the increasingly, *ahem* lesbian direction in their image, if Kataomoi Finally and Kiss Datte Hidarikiki are to be believed), to use an oft-cliched phrase, "We are all one big family". I have commented on the increasing member fluidity across the entire franchise, and that is something many of us have to live with, if we aren't already doing so. Also consider financial and business issues in general by going their own separate ways - try hosting two huge senbatsu elections, for one.

The verdict? Borrowing the late Mark Twain for a second, "the rumours of my death have been greatly exaggerated". The girls at Sakae are still alive and kicking and, rest assured, will still be kicking (hopefully goals) at least for now. Populist cynics and doomsayers be damned.