Reboot 2014

(Warning: strong, blunt opinions which may cause some slight offence)

It was announced yesterday that there is going to be a 48 group-wide team shuffle to be held late next month. Given the lack of details at this stage, apart from location and date, fans and members have been very divisive about this issue, filled with much nervousness and cautionary anticipation about what will happen come February 24.

Let's get straight to the point: as long as my oshi isn't personally badly affected by it too much, I'm not particularly fussed. I can't recall any shuffle (or major membership structure change) that hasn't been effective in recent memory. Whether it's needed right now, to me, depends on which sister group (and team)'s viewpoint you take:

AKB48:

It's very clear (and in fact, unfortunately highlighted in the video played last night) that AKB48 needs a reorganisation. Consider the team structure as it currently stands: 

• Even with Mariko gone, most of the current heavy-hitters are still in Team A (Mayu, Takamina, Yuihan, Ricchan and, to some extent, Annin).  
• Team K is in strife. Yuko's going, Sayaka/Tomochin/Amina are all gone. Jurina isn't technically 100% Team K (and let's not get into the debate about her theater appearances anyway) and, suffice to say, Mocchi and Kitarie really can't hold a candle compared to the other aforementioned five. 
• Team B may be in a decent shape now, but given their age I'm placing Yukirin, Kojiharu and Umechan on graduation watch. Remove them and you really only have Paruru left to hold the fort. 
• You could argue that Team 4 has the share of what I like to call "strategic growth prospects", of which there are quite a few. Including Miichan. 

As much as I hate to say it, this is an exercise in balancing brand and image management; you really need a few "halo members" per team (like Yuko, Mayu etc.) to balance out those expected to grow big (like Kojimako, Mikichan etc.) and those on the fringe of irrelevance. Merely chucking in the draftees won't do much either, given that they're all starting from scratch. And I suspect those whom management expected to flourish since the 2012 shuffles haven't really taken off much - one could point out election ranks in counterpoint, but the higher rank you go up, the law of diminishing returns starts to take effect. Not to mention a myriad of other factors. If teams really want to win in this pennant race, then there needs to be a hook. Currently, if you exclude Yuko and Jurina, Team K does not have much and sooner or later, neither will Team B. Team A (and to some extent, Team 4) holds all the power, which may be detrimental in the long-run. Hence I don't think it to be unreasonable that AKB48 goes through another shuffle. 

What AKB48 really needs are mass graduations; I don't think this shuffle alone won't fix the problem. But that's for another day. 

SKE48:

Here's where it gets a bit messy. SKE48 just had a shuffle less than a year ago. In my view, going through yet another shuffle is too soon. However, executive-level management has shown that the duration argument is meaningless - witness Kitarie's dual membership cancellation only a few weeks after her placing into Team KII. Considering that all options are on the table in a bid to even out the entire family, I would not be surprised if we see Rabutan-like transfers between sister groups. And frankly, Team E beyond Rena and Nao is struggling to gain much attention post-Gaishi Hall. I would've been satisfied with mere internal promotions (*cough* Nagoya Dome *cough*); nevertheless, what will actually happen is anyone's guess at this point; however, I would look to Jurina to play a huge role in the new structure.

NMB48:

If I were to describe NMB48's structure in one word, it would be "problematic". Nana's transfer over to Team M didn't really help much; the NMB48 of today still looks like a pre-2009 shuffle AKB48. Jo's return might return some balance of power, but fact of the matter is, NMB48 is way too lopsided towards Team N. Team M is still a fair way behind, and don't even get me started on Team BII. The mass shuffle should hopefully fix things. 

HKT48:

Again, similar argument to what I mentioned for SKE48: I don't think it matters too much from an overall 48 Group point of view that HKT48 just had their team shuffles a few weeks before. Assuming that no one will be left unscathed (which I suspect will happen), anything goes. Personally, I hope that HKT48 remains largely intact given how they're largely now power balanced, but then again, this is AKB48 for a reason. 

JKT48/SNH48:

I don't think international sister groups will be affected too much come Feb 24 due to much more involved and rather unavoidable logistical issues - if you thought managing Akicha's movements between Japan and Indonesia was a bit on the complicated side, try half the local Indoneisan members. That's not to say they won't be untouched either but again, who knows what's on management's mind.

The point of these shuffles is to keep the family fresh and relevant in the face of diverse competition and waning interest. But in order to do so, you need members that are relevant that can draw in the crowds to provide a solid base to start from. Some are clearly nearing the end of their 48 life cycle (for better or worse), but others are up and coming to stardom. Such decisions are clearly inherently risky, but balance the two out correctly and individual and group growth should soon follow.