A memo note on the Grand Reformation

The purpose of this post is to provide a high level overview of the results arising from the recent 48 Group "Grand Reformation" (also more commonly known in the fan parlance as "shuffles", used hereinafter), including a detailed discussion on focus areas of strategic importance and interest to the goals of the group as well as for the various stakeholders involved.

Background

As this readership would already be familiar with, the concept of a group shuffle is not new. Readers may cast their minds back to the first major AKB48 team shuffle in 2009 at Budokan, the 2012 Tokyo Dome shuffle and, more recently, sister group shuffles in 2013 (Gaishi Hall) and even only a few months ago (Oita prefecture). With regards to the Tokyo Dome shuffle, I have written about the key impacts and focus areas at length. It may be best to go through some of those points again (refer here), but since then, a lot of these core concepts that were just starting to take shape have now either fully matured or greatly expanded, paying particular attention to the point raised concerning dual memberships and inter-group transfers. Nevertheless, the fundamental takeaway points remain the same, even in 2014, and therefore I will not be dwelling too much on these issues in this opinion piece.

Final Team Structure (as of 26 February 2014)

Please refer to the AKB48 official website for the complete details of team member allocations.

I have assessed each team's membership structure from a high-level perspective, and note the following:

Note: nicknames used out of consideration for succinctness

AKB48 Team A

• Evenly balanced, but still very top-heavy. As the "flagship" and "original" team for the entire 48 Group, the lineup fits in with that rationale in mind. Nevertheless, there is room for growth: Paruru and Ricchan help to counterbalance Takamina and Kojiharu up top, whilst Annin, Nao, Sakura and Fuuchan help to segment the team as rapid growth prospects. 

AKB48 Team K

• Again, fairly balanced. Much more so than previous, less Yuko's pending departure. Jurina retaining her concurrent role in both Teams S and K provide enough continuity, whilst the supplementation of Sayanee, Kojimako, Kitarie, Yuihan and Haruppi help to compensate for Yuko's loss.

AKB48 Team B

• Notwithstanding Ikoma, the return of Team B classics Mayuyu and Yukirin will be the headline feature. However, there is sufficient enough depth and freshness in the form of Mio, Maachun, Naanya, draftee Aeri and ex-JKT48 Akicha and Nozawa to provide some variety.
• Also noted is that particularly with respect to those aforementioned members bar Mio and Ikoma, that the level of single member permanence is of a higher rate than in other teams. Thus it is expected that greater stability and time in investment will follow relative to other teams. 

AKB48 Team 4

• Generally consistent with prior period team structure, with the significant exception of Yuria as a transferred addition and the two concurrencies. 
• I consider Yuria's transfer to be controversial - the expectation was of a concurrency - but not unexpected in hindsight, and is overall in line with her goals. 

SKE48 Team S

• Strong leadership credentials given the higher than average probability rate of graduands.
• I note that this team also features several rapid growth members i.e. Uha, Azumarion and potentially Natsumikan later down the track. The concurrent addition of Milky adds a fresh new perspective to SKE48, and character to the generally fierce Team S.
• Jurina maintaining her Team S connections was needed; any move otherwise would pose significant risks to the current standing and image of SKE48. 

SKE48 Team KII

• Would have been close to ideal, if not for the transfer rejection of Yuurin (now Team 4). More on that later in detail.
• A lot of room to grow: three draftees, Mizuho and Nao, plus Kenkyuusei promotees. Nana would potentially provide a counterbalance to the often crazy and well established Airin and Churi combination - the latter of whom will be involved heavily in concurrency matters anyway. Yukko, Annya should provide enough stability in the form of familiarity (the latter out of legacy "original" KII, not post-Gaishi KII). 
• I would consider Minarun's single membership in SKE48 a positive development and a step in the right direction. 

SKE48 Team E

• Rena's concurrency in Nogizaka46 is the highlight - however, with regards to Team E matters, her connection with SKE48 would, like Jurina above, have needed to be maintained. However, I note that there may be a potential risk factor for Team E in light of Rena's concurrency, as front-runners Dasu, Non and Ayachan are not nearly at that level yet as significant "halo" members. 
• Given the relative "dryness" of this team's composition, the importation of the very bold and loud Tani from HKT48 is widely welcome and should offset any concerns in this area. 
• Again, similar to Team KII's situation, high growth prospects is expected to play a large role in Team E as well. However, it may not be as evident, nor as rapidly explicit, as Team KII would be likely to exhibit. 

NMB48 Team N

• The draftee Sutou and Aanya (ex-HKT48) may have the potential to become significantly influential; however, given that all of Sayanee, Yukirin and Kotani have concurrency duties, a material weakness is already evident. Keicchi may not have the sufficient pulling power to lead N in Sayanee's absence at this stage, and unless the rest of the members pull their weight, the issue of depth and rapid growth prospects may persist for some time.

NMB48 Team M

• Significant weaknesses are most evident in this team's composition, relative to all other teams in the 48 Group. Both Nana and Fuuchan, neither of which are top-level yet, are both concurrencies, whilst Reinyan is an untested factor and herself going through her own personal development. 
• I note that despite the presence of Mirurun, Momoka, Riichan and Yuipon (the latter most likely for consistency), there is a lot of ground to make up for if they are to sufficiently compete well with other teams composed of more established members. Moreover, given Jo's re-promotion rejection and Shimarena's pending graduation, this risk factor is even more amplified here. 

NMB48 Team BII

• Far healthier and balanced than in its previous iteration. The addition of "star" veterans and experienced members like Milky, Churi, Miorin and Umechan will greatly supplement (what is left of) the existing composition, especially BII regulars like Shuu or Emichi. 
• The potential real effect of these additions is currently unclear, given (from that list of four names) the former two are concurrencies playing double duty with their SKE48 teams; however, Miorin (pre-ex-Team N) and Umechan should provide enough stability. 

HKT48 Team H

• Nothing of considerable interest to highlight, with the exception of Nako and Miku's promotions. From a team balancing point of view, it may be more favourable to split the two, but their age factors (both 12 years old) and well-established fan favouritism as a kids combo may have been influential in keeping the two together. Moreover, it would be easier for Sasshi to keep watch over them given their relative lack of experience despite their rapid growth and popularity prospects.

HKT48 Team KIV

• Similar to Team H, minimal points to note with the exception of Non's concurrency. Whether that will have any effect on Team KIV remains to be seen, particularly on the Team E end if Rena invests more time on Nogizaka46 activities. 

Key Focus Areas

Given the broad-reaching nature of this shuffle, I have highlighted the following significant points of interest for further discussion and consideration:

Management choice in membership structure

• It is clear management have invested a lot of time and effort into determining the final team structures. Most teams, with perhaps the exception of Teams N and M, are either at the same level or stand to benefit more from the shuffle and the compositions itself reflect members' characters, combinations, inherent and active popularity, skill sets and ambitions.
• Whilst I note that this shuffle was primarily designed to resolve team composition issues that existed at an AKB48 level, arising mainly because of graduations, it appears that each sister group (again, with the possible exception of NMB48) did not suffer as expected. 

Rejections and rescindees

• I noted that the final listing as at 26 Feb 2014 is slightly different to the original structure as announced on the 24 Feb 2014. This is due to several members requesting movement rejections. 
• In the case of both Yuurin (Team KII to 4) and Karen (Team S to A), I note that their original fits would have been favourable. However, the reasons cited for rejecting their transfers appear to be reasonable, given their age, family and academic circumstances. Whilst I do express some slight disappointment at their rejections, the reasoning behind their decision making limits that disappointment to most extent. 

Leadership

• From my review of the captains and deputy captains, I note no material issues. The choice of captains and deputies are in line with historical experience and precedence, notwithstanding the following:
• Airin and Akarin's appointment to lead captaincy roles in KII and E respectively. Whilst neither are immediately particularly recognised for their leadership skills, it is of my opinion that this presents a considerably new challenge for them to tackle and should substantially be able to further their professional and personal development goals. Furthermore, they both have the experienced support of Minarun (ex-4 captain) and Umechan (ex-E captain) for advice.
• Yuria's appointment to sub-captaincy in 4. I believe this choice is out of management believing Yuria could leverage off her experience whilst in SKE48 and being able to act as senior to most of Team 4, itself composed of relatively junior members within the entire 48 Group. 

Colour and team branding

• In my review of subsequent events post-shuffle, I noted an offhand comment by Kaotan on Google+ outlining her concern of SKE48 now becoming no different to the rest of the 48 groups. Even allowing for the general opinion that Kaotan often speaks her mind directly on matters, even if perhaps controversial, I do not necessarily wholly share that same opinion.
• The number of "new" members in each team is, on average, less than 50% across all teams; less than 30% if we only include members transferred from/concurrent with other sister groups. 
• From a whole sister group perspective, the number of inter-sister group movements is, on average, less than 20% of total existing composition of the sister group in question.
• Qualitative considerations, such as new bonds, experience and evolving member goals/characters and stakeholder demand, are, based on historical precedence, generally favourable long-term.
• From the above major qualitative and quantitative factors, there are no indications that have come to my attention that would significantly affect each group's so-called "colour" and overall branding. Whilst I do note that such considerations are ultimately determined over time and cannot be measured solely on numbers, history suggests members have adapted over time and therefore have not been any major shifts in sister group identity. 

Cross transfers and concurrencies - Tokyo in/outbound, inter-sister group

• I observe that transfers and concurrencies can be divided into two groups: in/outbound Tokyo (AKB48) and cross-sister groups.
• Inbound Tokyo full transfers: Chori (H to A), Maachun (N to B), Nozawa (J to B) and Yuria (S to 4). 
• It is clear that these members have potential and opportunities that may have been fully realised whilst in their existing sister groups due to the relative lack of "prestige" compared to a Tokyo-based group. Specifically, Yuria's decision appears more to be influenced by personal goal factors, whilst Maachun and (to a lesser extent) Chori now have access and exposure to a greater audience base to build upon their variety and comedic potential. 
• Outbound Tokyo full transfers: Ranran (B to S), Suuchan (A to E), Reinyan (B to M), Miorin and Umechan (B to BII).
• The common link between these members appear to be one of a possible declining stakeholder interest, now given a new opportunity to stand out in a different environment. 
• Inbound and outbound Tokyo concurrencies are generally of the same reasoning, but to a lesser extent and mainly out of additional experience building. 
• Cross sister group movements. 
• I note that the majority of movements are concurrencies, with the exception of Tani (KIV to E). Again, the same reasoning as per Chori (but perhaps to a lesser extent considering the Nagoya audience base is not as strong as Tokyo) could be applied in this circumstance. 
• Similar reasoning can be applied to cross-sister group concurrencies as per Tokyo-bound concurrencies noted above. For some (e.g. Churi, Non, Aanya) it may, again, be an added factor of the possible risk of declining stakeholder interest and thus, some form of added experience and opportunity building may be required to counteract this risk.

International moves

• Movements appear to be limited to Akicha, Nozawa and Chikarina. 
• It appears Akicha may not have flourished as well as Harugon (who remains in J) whilst in Indonesia and thus, management may have decided it may be more beneficial for her to return to Japan. However, I note that this is ultimately subject to speculation.
• Nozawa's move may have been influenced by personal and family reasons, according to subsequent event reviews from other fans and analysts.
• Chikarina's move to J would be of similar reasoning as noted above for Tokyo outbound movements. 

Nogizaka46 involvement

• For the first time, movements between the 48 Group and Nogizaka46 were implemented. This marks the first formal structural collaboration between the two group entities beyond media and performance tie-ups. 
• I note that a full incorporated shuffle of Nogizaka46 would not have technically been possible given the lack of a formal team structure within Nogizaka46 itself. Therefore, the movements have been limited to concurrencies, and then only to two affected members (Ikomachan and Rena)
• At this stage, it would be very difficult to predict the effect of such a move, notwithstanding the general reasoning and factors for internal 48 Group moves as previously highlighted, due the slightly different organisation, concept and culture between the two groups. 
• I have also formally considered the definition of "rivalry" as it applies to Nogizaka46's relationship with the 48 Group. I note that the very definition of a rival does not necessarily lend towards the need to have completely separate managing entities (for example, with most sporting clubs belonging to the same overall association or league) and therefore can have some freedom to allow for informal tie-ups. This also includes movements between rival groups, as is also similarly present in sporting clubs - one can observe the movements of players between football clubs as a strong example. 
• The confusion, however, arises when we consider the following:
• That there have not been any clear markers or explicit suggestions beyond mere replication of AKB48 group content from Nogizaka46 that they are indeed "rivals" in both form and substance - the latter is the source of contention.
• That upon observation of member and fan dynamics, inter-sister group interactions within the 48 Group alone suggest a stronger rivalrous relationship (especially between SKE48 and all other sister groups) than between the 48 Group and Nogizaka46. However, this observation is limited only to observations within the international fandom and sample representations within the Japanese local fandom have not been sought out.
• The role of Aki-P: if we consider him to be likened to a league association/administration entity (akin to most sporting leagues) then their use of "rivalry" would be more justified as a true and fair representation of the relationship between the 48 Group and Nogizaka46. However, if it is more of a holding company setup (as seen in most corporate conglomerates) where each "brand" has its own distinct image and product, then the relationship between the two is less of a "rivalry" and it would be more appropriate to reduce Nogizaka46 as another, albeit slightly more distinct, sister group, and any form of "rivalry" would not be so far deviated from existing inter-sister group rivalries that would necessarily warrant an explicit declaration of rivalry in Nogizaka46's core group maxim. 
• It is of my opinion that this issue currently remains unsolved. However, it appears that, from a perception point-of-view (as opposed to a more technical basis from the above analysis), these inter-group movements are a signal of closer integration between the two "rivals" on face value, suggesting a possible weakening of the formal rivalrous relationship. 

Conclusion

Overall, nothing has come to my attention that would suggest that there are any material issues arising from the shuffle that would significantly impact the Group overall, as well as for each of the sister groups and its members.